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Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation

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Author Info
Sambit Bhattacharyya
Jeffrey G. Williamson

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Abstract

Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks like Third World commodity exporters, but this price volatility has had much more modest impact on economic performance. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining-led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their deindustrialization and distributional impact during the booms, and their labour market and policy responses throughout. Australia has indeed responded differently to volatile commodity prices than have other commodity exporters.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 605.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:605

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Related research
Keywords: Commodity exports; price shocks; Australian economy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
O56 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Oceania

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  1. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913," NBER Working Papers 13841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hatton, Timothy J. & Boyer, George R., 2005. "Unemployment and the UK labour market before, during and after the Golden Age," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 35-60, April. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Robert J. Gordon & Ian Dew-Becker, 2008. "Controversies about the Rise of American Inequality: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 13982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barnard, A & Butlin, N G, 1981. "Australian Public and Private Capital Formation, 1901-75," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(159), pages 354-67, December.
  7. Norris, Keith, 1977. "The Dispersion of Earnings in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(144), pages 475-89, December.
  8. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 2002. "'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 249-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," CEPR Discussion Papers 6513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. W. J. Martin, 1989. "Implications of Changes in the composition of Australian Exports for Export Sector Instability," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(1), pages 39-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Peter Lloyd, 2008. "100 Years Of Tariff Protection In Australia," Australian Economic History Review, Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and the Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(2), pages 99-145, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-56, April.
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