Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jeffrey G. Williamson

Abstract

W. Arthur Lewis argued that a new international economic order emerged between 1870 and 1913, and that global terms of trade forces produced rising primary product specialization and de-industrialization in the poor periphery. More recently, modern economists argue that volatility reduces growth in the poor periphery. This paper assess these de-industrialization and volatility forces between 1782 and 1913 during the Great Divergence. First, it argues that the new economic order had been firmly established by 1870, and that the transition took place in the century before, not after. Second, based on econometric evidence from 1870-1939, we know that while a terms of trade improvement raised long run growth in the rich core, it did not do so in the poor periphery. Given that the secular terms of trade boom in the poor periphery was much bigger over the century before 1870 than after, it seems plausible to infer that it might help explain the great 19th century divergence between core and periphery. Third, the boom and its de-industrialization impact was only part of the story; growth-reducing terms of trade volatility was the other. Between 1820 and 1870, terms of trade volatility was much greater in the poor periphery than the core. It was still very big after 1870, certainly far bigger than in the core. Based on econometric evidence from 1870-2000, we know that terms of trade volatility lowers long run growth in the poor periphery, and that the negative impact is big. Given that terms of trade volatility in the poor periphery was even bigger during the century before 1870, it seems plausible to infer that it also helps explain the great 19th century divergence between core and periphery.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13841.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13841.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2008. "Globalization and the Great Divergence: terms of trade booms, volatility and the poor periphery, 1782?1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 355-391, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13841

Note: DAE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link," IMF Working Papers 04/51, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio, 2009. "Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper, World Bank 52793, World Bank.
  2. Vicente Pinilla & Gema Aparicio, 2014. "Navigating in Troubled Waters: South American Exports of Food and Agricultural Products in the World Market, 1900-1938," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE), Asociación Española de Historia Económica 1406, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
  3. Francis, Joseph A., 2014. "The Periphery’s Terms of Trade in the Nineteenth Century: A Methodological Problem Revisited," MPRA Paper 57934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Roberto Bonfatti, 2013. "Trade and the Pattern of European Imperialism, 1492-2000," Discussion Papers 2013-01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  5. repec:got:cegedp:81 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Francis, Joseph A., 2014. "Resolving the Halperín Paradox: The Terms of Trade and Argentina’s Expansion in the Long Nineteenth Century," MPRA Paper 57915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "History without Evidence: Latin American Inequality since 1491," NBER Working Papers 14766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "History without Evidence: Latin American Inequality since 1491," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 3, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  10. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey Williamson, 2013. "Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century," CEH Discussion Papers 019, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  11. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation," NBER Working Papers 14694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dante Aldrighi & Renato P. Colistete, 2013. "Industrial Growth and Structural Change: Brazil in a Long-Run Perspective," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) 2013_10, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  13. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2010. "Latin American Growth-Inequality Trade-Offs: The Impact of Insurgence and Independence," NBER Working Papers 15680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Sharp, Paul & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2013. "Globalization revisited: Market integration and the wheat trade between North America and Britain from the eighteenth century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 88-98.
  15. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Five Centuries of Latin American Inequality," NBER Working Papers 15305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.