IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v43y2007i3p5-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Erdem Basci
  • M. Fatih Ekinci
  • Murat Yulek

Abstract

Both emerging and developed economies increasingly use fiscal rules. This paper analyzes the effects of two alternative fiscal rules on debt sustainability. The fixed surplus rule fixes the ratio of primary surplus to gross domestic product (GDP), and the variable surplus rule sets the primary surplus as a linear function of the debt-to-GDP ratio. A simple debt dynamics equation is constructed that incorporates real shocks, and the probability of exceeding the critical debt level is simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. The results show that the variable surplus rule performs better than does the simple fixed surplus rule by reducing debt sustainability concerns and the necessary medium-term primary surplus. This result hinges on government ability to commit credibly to the variable surplus rule in the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem Basci & M. Fatih Ekinci & Murat Yulek, 2007. "On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 5-15, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:3:p:5-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=A3U200L2437X1338
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    2. Mr. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 2004/051, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Halpern, László & Neményi, Judit, 2002. "Fiscal Foundation of Convergence to European Union in Pre-Accession Transition Countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Mr. George Kopits, 2001. "Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament?," IMF Working Papers 2001/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Simona Elena Dragomirescu, 2013. "An Analysis Of The Fiscal Convergence Criteria In The European Union In Terms Of The Sustainability," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 18.
    2. Saibu Olufemi Muibi, 2015. "Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(58), pages 51-80, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules," IMF Working Papers 2004/117, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    3. Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
    4. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    6. Nima Mirzaei & Béla Vizvári, 2015. "A New Approach to Reconstruction of Moody’s Rating System for Countries Investment Risk Rating," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 167-182.
    7. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    8. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    11. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    12. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    13. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-1.
    14. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Spr), pages 163-187.
    17. Andrew CORNFORD, 2000. "The Basle Committee’S Proposals For Revised Capital Standards: Rationale, Design And Possible Incidence," G-24 Discussion Papers 3, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    18. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    19. Yasir Riaz & Choudhry T. Shehzad & Zaghum Umar, 2021. "The sovereign yield curve and credit ratings in GIIPS," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 895-916, September.
    20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:3:p:5-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.