IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v19y2012i5p741-761.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach

Author

Listed:
  • Agliardi, Elettra
  • Agliardi, Rossella
  • Pinar, Mehmet
  • Stengos, Thanasis
  • Topaloglou, Nikolas

Abstract

An optimal weighting scheme is proposed to construct economic, political and financial risk indices in emerging markets using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. These tests are considered for a given risk index with respect to all possible indices constructed from a set of individual risk factors. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods. We derive an economic, political and financial risk ranking of emerging countries. Finally, an overall risk index is constructed. One main result is that the financial risk is the leading contributor to sovereign risk in emerging markets followed by the economic and political risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2012. "A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 741-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:741-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539812000606
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Sovereign risk assessment and agency credit ratings," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 247-256, July.
    3. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    4. Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2003/177, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2010. "Testing for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 169-180.
    6. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    7. Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Van Rijckeghem, Caroline, 2004. "The Politics Of Debt Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Miguel Messmacher & Mark Kruger, 2004. "Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs," IMF Working Papers 2004/053, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    10. Mr. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 2004/051, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    12. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    13. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    15. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
    16. Jesus Gonzalo & Jose Olmo, 2014. "Conditional Stochastic Dominance Tests In Dynamic Settings," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 819-838, August.
    17. Charles M. Beach & Russell Davidson, 1983. "Distribution-Free Statistical Inference with Lorenz Curves and Income Shares," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(4), pages 723-735.
    18. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    19. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    20. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2005. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 735-765.
    21. Garry F. Barrett & Stephen G. Donald, 2003. "Consistent Tests for Stochastic Dominance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 71-104, January.
    22. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    24. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    25. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    26. Flandreau, Marc & Packer, Frank & Gaillard, Norbert, 2009. "Ratings Performance, Regulation and the Great Depression: Lessons from Foreign Government Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 7328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    28. Mr. Bennett W Sutton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2002/149, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Anderson, Gordon, 1996. "Nonparametric Tests of Stochastic Dominance in Income Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1183-1193, September.
    30. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2002. "“Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises, and the Roles of International Lending," IMF Working Papers 2002/234, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
    32. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    33. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    34. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Michael T. Gapen & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Ms. Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 2005/155, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    37. Abadie A., 2002. "Bootstrap Tests for Distributional Treatment Effects in Instrumental Variable Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 284-292, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
    2. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2015. "An environmental degradation index based on stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 439-459, February.
    3. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "A cross-volatility index for hedging the country risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-41.
    4. Francisco López-Herrera & Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & César Gurrola Ríos, 2019. "Spillovers entre el S&Poor500 y los principales EMBIG latinoamericanos," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 527-540, Agosto 20.
    5. Mehmet Pinar, 2015. "Measuring world governance: revisiting the institutions hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 747-778, March.
    6. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2013. "A New Index of Environmental Quality Based on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Working Paper series 12_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Annika Westphal, 2015. "Systemic Risk in the European Union: A Network Approach to Banks’ Sovereign Debt Exposures," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-36, July.
    8. Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
    9. Guido Bonatti & Andrea Ciacci & Enrico Ivaldi, 2021. "Different Measures of Country Risk: An Application to European Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Geographical diversification with a World Volatility Index," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-82.
    11. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    12. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2022. "Stochastic dominance spanning and augmenting the human development index with institutional quality," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(1), pages 341-369, August.
    13. Tahsin Mehdi, 2019. "Stochastic Dominance Approach to OECD’s Better Life Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 917-954, June.
    14. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    15. San Martín Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez Castellanos, Arturo, 2008. "¿Reflejan los índices de riesgo país las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis externas? Un análisis sobre el periodo 1994-2001," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    16. Shunsuke Managi & Shuning Chen & Pushpam Kumar & Partha Dasgupta, 2024. "Sustainable matrix beyond GDP: investment for inclusive growth," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Jiann-jong Guo & Guo-chen Wang & Chien-hung Tung, 2014. "Do China's Outward Direct Investors Prefer Countries with High Political Risk? An International and Empirical Comparison," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 22-43, November.
    18. Giovanni Bernardo & Irene Brunetti & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Measuring the presence of organized crime across Italian provinces: a sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 31-95, February.
    19. Tahsin Mehdi, 2019. "Stochastic Dominance Approach to Measuring Child Development," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 12(5), pages 1567-1588, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    2. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    3. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Paper series 17_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    5. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2013. "Measuring human development: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 69-108, March.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2013. "Promotion and Relegation between Country Risk Classes as Maintained by Country Risk Rating Agencies," Working Papers 376, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2016. "The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-100.
    9. Davor Kunovac & Rafael Ravnik, 2017. "Are Sovereign Credit Ratings Overrated?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(2), pages 210-242, June.
    10. Emara, Noha, 2012. "Inflation volatility, financial institutions and sovereign debt rating," MPRA Paper 68688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cuadra Gabriel & Sapriza Horacio, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Terms of Trade and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-01, Banco de México.
    12. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
    14. Francesco Andreoli, 2018. "Robust Inference for Inverse Stochastic Dominance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 146-159, January.
    15. Christodoulakis, George & Mohamed, Abdulkadir & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2018. "Optimal privatization portfolios in the presence of arbitrary risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 1172-1191.
    16. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    17. Jesus Gonzalo & Jose Olmo, 2014. "Conditional Stochastic Dominance Tests In Dynamic Settings," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 819-838, August.
    18. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Almas Heshmati, 2003. "Evaluating Dominance Ranking of PSID Incomes by various Household Attributes," Departmental Working Papers 0509, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    19. David Lander & David Gunawan & William Griffiths & Duangkamon Chotikapanich, 2020. "Bayesian assessment of Lorenz and stochastic dominance," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 767-799, May.
    20. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric stochastic dominance; Mixed Integer programming; Sovereign risk; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:741-761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.