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The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets

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  • Batten, Jonathan A.
  • Ciner, Cetin
  • Lucey, Brian M.

Abstract

This paper models the monthly price volatilities of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices) and investigates the macroeconomic determinants (business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment) of these volatilities. Gold volatility is shown to be explained by monetary variables, but this is not true for silver. Overall, there is limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the four precious metal price series, although there is evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. These results are consistent with the view that precious metals are too distinct to be considered a single asset class, or represented by a single index. This finding is of importance for portfolio managers and investors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 65-71

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:65-71

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

Related research

Keywords: Commodity prices Gold Macroeconomic factors Silver Volatility;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tsolas, Ioannis E., 2014. "Precious metal mutual fund performance appraisal using DEA modeling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-60.
  2. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  3. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Working Papers hal-00798038, HAL.
  4. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler & German Dabat, 2011. "Co-movements in commodity prices: A note based on network analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2011-21, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  5. CARPANTIER, Jean-François & DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2012. "Commodities volatility and the theory of storage," CORE Discussion Papers 2012037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," Working Papers hal-00798033, HAL.
  7. Jean-François Carpantier & Arnaud Dufays, 2013. "Commodities Inventory Effect," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-07, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  8. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 504-511.
  9. Mutafoglu, Takvor H. & Tokat, Ekin & Tokat, Hakki A., 2012. "Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-280.
  10. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
  11. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Value-at-risk Predictions of Precious Metals with Long Memory Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 53229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Gold, Oil, and Stocks," Papers 1308.0210, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.

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