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Can Productivity Growth Explain the NAIRU? Long-Run Evidence from Britain, 1871-1999

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  • TIMOTHY J. HATTON

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of productivity growth on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) over the long run, using historically consistent time series for the UK from 1871 to 1999. A two-equation model of unemployment and wage-setting that incorporates productivity effects is estimated over the whole period, allowing for shifts associated with changes in labour market institutions. The results indicate that faster productivity growth reduces the NAIRU, but that this goes only part of the way towards explaining wide swings in average unemployment across the decades. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2006.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 74 (2007)
Issue (Month): 295 (08)
Pages: 475-491

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:74:y:2007:i:295:p:475-491

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Cited by:
  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2012. "Inequality and Employment Sensitivities to the Falling Labour Share," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(3), pages 343-376.
  2. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  3. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Working Papers 623, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  6. Gylfi Zoega, 2009. "Employment and Asset Prices," Economics wp46, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  7. Gene Ambrocio & Tae-Seok Jang, 2009. "Productivity Shocks and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from US and Euro Area," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Junichi Fujimoto, 2008. "Implications of General and Specific Productivity Growth in a Matching Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 584, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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