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Can Productivity Growth Explain the NAIRU? Long-Run Evidence from Britain, 1871-1999

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  • TIMOTHY J. HATTON

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of productivity growth on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) over the long run, using historically consistent time series for the UK from 1871 to 1999. A two-equation model of unemployment and wage-setting that incorporates productivity effects is estimated over the whole period, allowing for shifts associated with changes in labour market institutions. The results indicate that faster productivity growth reduces the NAIRU, but that this goes only part of the way towards explaining wide swings in average unemployment across the decades. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2006.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 74 (2007)
Issue (Month): 295 (08)
Pages: 475-491

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:74:y:2007:i:295:p:475-491

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Cited by:
  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Working Papers 623, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Gylfi Zoega, 2009. "Employment and Asset Prices," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0917, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  3. Gene Ambrocio & Tae-Seok Jang, 2009. "Productivity Shocks and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from US and Euro Area," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
  5. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Shocks And The Australian Economy Since Federation," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(2), pages 150-177, 07.
  6. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The Wage-Productivity Gap Revisited: Is the Labour Share Neutral to Employment?," IZA Discussion Papers 5092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  8. Junichi Fujimoto, 2008. "Implications of General and Specific Productivity Growth in a Matching Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 584, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Dario JUDZIK & Hector SALA, 2013. "Productivity, deunionization and trade: Wage effects and labour share implications," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 152(2), pages 205-236, 06.
  10. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2011. "Inequality and Employment Sensitivities to the Falling Labour Share," Working Papers 680, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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