Vicious And Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy Of Unemployment
AbstractWe develop an empirical non-linear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The model here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment as endogenous, pushed by the interaction of shocks and the institutional structure of the economy; the channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with "limited information" on the natural rate of unemployment react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results from a dozen OECD economies give support to the model prediction of a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks and the model specification is superior in forecasting performance out of sample to alternative models of "generalised hysteresis". Copyright (c) 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2010 Economic Society of South Africa.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 78 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
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Other versions of this item:
- Patrick Minford & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Vicious and virtuous circles--The political economy of unemployment," Working Papers 200914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles: The Political Economy of Unemployment," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/03, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2002. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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- Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2008.
"Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2008. "Vicious and virtuous circles -- The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 605-614, September.
- Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Nov 2006.
- Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Kent Matthews, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Norbert Berthold & Rainer Fehn, 2003. "Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies," CESifo Working Paper Series 871, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2003.
"Labour Demand in Germany: An Assessment of Non-Wage Labour Costs,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
952, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2003. "Labour Demand in Germany: An Assessment of Non- Wage Labour Costs," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 154, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
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