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Vicious and Virtuous Circles: The Political Economy of Unemployment

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Author Info
Ruthira Naraidoo () (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)
Patrick Minford () (Cardiff Business School, Aberconway Building, Cardiff University)

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Abstract

We develop a theoretical nonlinear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment as endogenous, pushed by the interaction of shocks and the institutional structure of the economy; the channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate of unemployment react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results from a dozen OECD economies give support to the model and further evidence is obtained by structural estimates for the UK.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2006/03.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2006/03

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581
Fax: +44 (0)1782 717577
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Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/
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Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
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Web: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/pubs_kerps.htm

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium unemployment; political economy; vicious and virtuous circles; bootstrapping;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Kent Matthews, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Norbert Berthold & Rainer Fehn, 2003. "Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2003. "Labour Demand in Germany: An Assessment of Non-Wage Labour Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2005. "Non-Wage Labour Costs, Policy Uncertainty and Labour Demand - a Theoretical Assessment," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20511, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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