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Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment

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Author Info
Minford, Patrick
Naraidoo, Ruthira

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Abstract

We develop a theoretical nonlinear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment as endogenous, pushed by the interaction of shocks (mainly demand-management in nature) and the institutional structure of the economy; the channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The results from a dozen OECD economies appear to confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves with nonlinear dynamics between high and low equilibria in response to shocks obtained. The policy conclusion is that macroeconomics and supply side policies are intimately linked through political economy and these have the capacity to create both ‘vicious’ and ‘virtuous’ circles of economic performance.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3618.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3618

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Related research
Keywords: equilibrium employment; political economy; vicious and virtuous circles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Kent Matthews, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2003. "Labour Demand in Germany: An Assessment of Non-Wage Labour Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Norbert Berthold & Rainer Fehn, 2003. "Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2005. "Non-Wage Labour Costs, Policy Uncertainty and Labour Demand - a Theoretical Assessment," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20511, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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