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Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse

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Author Info
Poelhekke, Steven
van der Ploeg, Frederick

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Abstract

Cross-country evidence is presented on resource dependence and the link between volatility and growth. First, growth depends negatively on volatility of unanticipated output growth independent of initial income per capita, the average investment share, initial human capital, trade openness, the national income share of natural resource exports and population growth. Second, the adverse effect of resources on growth operates primarily through higher volatility. The positive effect of resources on growth is positive, but can be swamped by the indirect negative effect through volatility. Third, with well developed financial sectors, the resource curse is less pronounced. Fourth, landlocked countries with ethnic tensions have higher volatility and lower growth. Fifth, restrictions on the current account lead to higher volatility and lower growth, but capital account restrictions lower volatility and boost growth. These effects are especially strong in resource-rich countries. We also present IV-estimates to correct for the endogenous nature of investment rates and panel estimates to allow for possible changes in explanatory variables over time. Our key message is that the volatility is a quintessential feature of the resource curse.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6513.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6513

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Related research
Keywords: ethnic tensions; financial development; growth; landlocked; openness; resource curse; restrictions on current and capital account; volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation," CEPR Discussion Papers 605, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
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