This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Kose, M. Ayhan
Riezman, Raymond

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a small open economy calibrated to represent a typical African economy. In our framework, external shocks consist of trade shocks, modeled a s fluctuations in the prices of exported primary commodities, imported capital goods and intermediate inputs, and a financial shock, modeled as fluctuations in the world real interest rate. Our results indicate that while trade shocks account for roughly 45 percent of economic fluctuations in aggregate output, financial shocks play only a minor role. We also find that adverse trade shocks induce prolonged recessions.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocCIDL/WP203.PDF
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 203.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_203

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

Related research
Keywords: Trade shocks dynamic stochastic quantitative trade model African economies

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2005. "Do Terms of Trade Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 377, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2004. "On the Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," Cahiers de recherche 0404, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Bill Blankenau & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "World Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Open Economies: a Multiple Shock Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1232, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  7. André, NYEMBWE & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN, 2005. "North-South Asymmetric Relationships : Does the EMU Business Affect Small African Economies ?," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2005032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938," NBER Working Papers 9940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO). [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sandeep Kapur & Luis Catão, 2004. "Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 04/51, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Pierre van den Boogaerde, 2005. "Ten Years After the CFA Franc Devaluation: Progress Toward Regional Integration in the WAEMU," IMF Working Papers 05/145, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pablo A. Acosta & Emmanuel K.K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman, 2007. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Working Paper 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Prathibha V. Joshi, 2008. "Perceived Financial Risk and Divergence in the Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Countries," Working Papers 200804, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  17. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS: An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by providing information about publications in your institution.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.