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Do Terms of Trade Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation

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Author Info
Thomas Lubik
Wing Leong Teo

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Abstract

Existing studies differ significantly on how much terms of trade shocks contribute to output fluctuations. Empirical studies based on VAR analysis find that terms of trade shocks explain less than 10% of output fluctuations while results from calibrated DSGE models suggest a figure of more than 50%. In this paper, we set out to bridge the gap between the two approaches by estimating a small scale DSGE model using a loss function based structural Bayesian inference approach. Our approach allows us to exploit cross-equation restrictions implied by the micro-founded structural model to estimate the contribution of terms of trade shocks to output fluctuations. We find that terms of trade shocks explain less than 5% of output fluctuations in our estimated model.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 377.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:377

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Related research
Keywords: Terms of Trade Business Cycles Small Open Economies Structural Estimation Bayesian Analysis

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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  1. Paul R. Bergin, 2004. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," NBER Working Papers 10356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Shaghil Ahmed & Radha Murthy, 1994. "Money, Output, and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 982-93, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldos & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag & Alejandro Justiniano, 2005. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Working Papers 05/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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