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Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade

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Author Info
Bidarkota, Prasad
Crucini, Mario J

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Abstract

On combining national terms-of-trade data for developing countries with world prices of internationally traded primary commodities, it is found that variation in the world prices of three or fewer key exported commodities account for 50% or more of the annual variation in the terms of trade of a typical developing country. A considerable fraction of the variation is specific to a particular commodity and, given that the overall importance of primary commodities differs across developing countries, it is possible to account for much of the heterogeneity across them. It is concluded that commodity price fluctuations should be central features of two related literatures: studies of business cycle transmission across developing and industrialized nations, and empirical work aimed at constructing perpetual claims on developing country incomes as suggested by Shiller in 1995. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 647-66
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:647-66

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Grossman, Gene M & Razin, Assaf, 1984. "International Capital Movements under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 286-306, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shiller, Robert J., 1995. "Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-152. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices - Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Y.Chen & K. Rogoff, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 76, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Cashin & Catherine Pattillo, 2006. "African terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade: close cousins or distant relatives?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 845-859, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Benjamin Dennis & Talan Iscan, 2002. "Terms of Trade Risk," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive totrisk, Dalhousie, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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