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North-South business cycles

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Author Info
Michael A. Kouparitsas

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Abstract

This paper shows that the economic activity of the industrial North and developing South move together - when the North is above its trend, the South tends to be above its trend. We refer to this phenomenon as the "North-South business cycle." The paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade that captures many cyclical features of North-South trade and production data. In particular, the high volatility of North-South terms of trade, and strong comovement of Northern and Southern activity. On the basis of this model we argue that North-South business cycles emerge because shocks originating in the North are transmitted to the South through international goods and assets trade.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues with number WP-96-9.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhma:wp-96-9

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles ; International trade ; Production (Economic theory);

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  2. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 2212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
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  6. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "North-South terms of trade: an empirical investigation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Moutos, Thomas & Vines, David, 1989. "The Simple Macroeconomics of North-South Interaction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 270-76, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Sundberg, Mark W., 1993. "Implications for the Asia-Pacific region of coordination of macroeconomic policies in the OECD," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 13-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Shapiro, Matthew D, 1987. "Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 118-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1981. "Terms of trade and domestic distribution : Export-led growth with abundant labour," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-192, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Findlay, Ronald, 1984. "Growth and development in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 185-236 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Burgstaller, A. & Saavedra-Rivano, N., 1984. "Capital mobility and growth in a North-South model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 213-237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Whalley, John, 1984. "The North-South Debate and the Terms of Trade: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 224-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  17. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October. [Downloadable!]
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  18. McIntosh, James, 1986. "North-south trade : Export-led Growth with Abundant Labour," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 141-152, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-1), pages 253-316. [Downloadable!]
  20. Baxter, Marianne, 1992. "Fiscal Policy, Specialization, and Trade in the Two-Sector Model: The Return of Ricardo?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 713-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1984. "North-South trade and exported-led policies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 131-160. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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