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Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

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  • Tim Atkin

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Mark Caputo

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Tim Robinson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Hao Wang

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings are quite different to those of the past. This mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the upswing and as the terms of trade decline may do likewise.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2014-01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2014-01

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Keywords: commodity prices; terms of trade; macroeconomic policy;

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  1. Ellis Connolly & David Orsmond, 2011. "The Mining Industry: From Bust to Boom," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
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