Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Quantifying Australia's "Three Speed" Boom

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aaron Walker
  • Rod Tyers

Abstract

This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated 'secondary services boom'. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis are used to examine the sectoral impacts on employment and income. The modelling confirms the services expansion of sufficient scale to tighten national labour markets and it projects an associated manufacturing contraction. A separate empirical analysis approaches the same links using vector auto-regressions estimated from pre-boom Australian data (1989 through 2002) and out of sample simulations over the subsequent boom period. The secondary services boom appears clearly but the results on manufacturing are ambiguous. Actual employment booms were larger, and manufacturing sector performance better, than predicted on the estimated VARs, suggesting that the recent boom accompanied changes in industrial structure and underlying behavioural parameters that have been favourable to surviving manufacturing firms.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2013/102013.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-10.

as in new window
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Email:
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Resources boom; Dutch disease; general equilibrium; mining; secondary services boom; response asymmetry;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  3. Rod Tyers & William Coleman, 2005. "Beyond Brigden: Australia’s Pre-War Manufacturing Tariffs, Real Wages and Economic Size," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics 2005-456, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  4. Venables, Anthony J., 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
  6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US economy from 1992 to 1998: results from a detailed CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-144, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  7. W Max Corden, 2012. "The Dutch Disease in Australia Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2012-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  8. Richard Harris, 1983. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 524, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, 08.
  10. William Coleman, 2008. "Gauging Economic Performance Under Changing Terms Of Trade: Real Gross Domestic Income Or Real Gross Domestic Product?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(4), pages 329-342, December.
  11. W. Max Corden, 2012. "The Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne wp2012n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  12. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
  13. Cassing, James H. & Warr, Peter G., 1985. "The distributional impact of a resource boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 301-319, May.
  14. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  15. Peter Sheehan & Bob Gregory, 2013. "The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Longer Run," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University 683, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.