IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qed/wpaper/1274.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact Of Commodity Price Volatility On Resource Intensive Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Keay

Abstract

Commodity price volatility is bad for macroeconomicperformance. Virtually all empirical studies that document thisnegative relationship rely on the estimation of aggregate growthequations using cross-section evidence drawn from the post-1970 era.This paper uses a simulation model based on the structure of a dynamicrenewable resource model of optimal extraction to determine whycommodity price volatility affects investment decisions, productionlevels, profitability, and ultimately long run growth. The Canadianforestry sector is used as a case study to assess the relative strengthof each of these effects. Simulation exercises reveal that commodityprice volatility shocks significantly reduce resource firms' equityprices and their demand for reproducible and natural capital. As aresult of these changes in the firms' external financing costs andinvestment incentives, extraction costs rise, output levels and profitsfall, and real GDP per capita growth slows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Keay, 2010. "The Impact Of Commodity Price Volatility On Resource Intensive Economies," Working Paper 1274, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1274.pdf
    File Function: First version 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel Fafchamps, 2003. "Rural Poverty, Risk and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3127.
    2. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    3. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    4. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Export growth and Canadian economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 133-145, January.
    5. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old-growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    6. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    7. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Shocks And The Australian Economy Since Federation," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(2), pages 150-177, July.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    10. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    11. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    12. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
    13. Venables, Anthony J. & Maloney, William & Kokko, Ari & Bravo Ortega, Claudio & Lederman, Daniel & Rigobón, Roberto & De Gregorio, José & Czelusta, Jesse & Jayasuriya, Shamila A. & Blomström, Magnus & , 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 350, March.
    14. Ian Keay, 2009. "Resource Specialization and Economic Performance: A Canadian Case Study, 1970-2005," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-313, September.
    15. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    17. Sadorsky, Perry & Henriques, Irene, 2001. "Multifactor risk and the stock returns of Canadian paper and forest products companies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 199-208, November.
    18. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2000. "International Comparisons of Real Product, 1820-1990: An Alternative Data Set," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-41, January.
    19. Lewis, Frank D, 1975. "The Canadian Wheat Boom and Per Capita Income: New Estimates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1249-1257, December.
    20. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    21. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    22. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    23. Neher,Philip A., 1990. "Natural Resource Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521311748.
    24. Keay, Ian & Redish, Angela, 2004. "The micro-economic effects of financial market structure: evidence from 20th century North American steel firms," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 377-403, October.
    25. Inwood Kris & Stengos Thanasis, 1995. "REJOINDER Segmented Trend Models of Canadian Economic Growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 253-261, April.
    26. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    27. Keay, Ian, 2007. "The Engine or the Caboose? Resource Industries and Twentieth-Century Canadian Economic Performance," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 1-32, March.
    28. Dercon, Stefan (ed.), 2004. "Insurance Against Poverty," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199276837.
    29. Denise Young, 1992. "Cost Specification and Firm Behaviour in a Hotelling Model of Resource Extraction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 41-59, February.
    30. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
    31. Fogli, Alessandra, 2003. "Comment on: "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 125-131, January.
    32. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    33. Edward J. Chambers & Donald F. Gordon, 1966. "Primary Products and Economic Growth: An Empirical Measurement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 315-315.
    34. Lederman, Daniel & Maloney, William F., 2003. "Trade structure and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3025, The World Bank.
    35. John G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1982. "Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number crag82-1, March.
    36. Dick, Trevor J. O., 1982. "Canadian Newsprint, 1913–1930: National Policies and the North American Economy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 659-687, September.
    37. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ian Keay & Cherie Metcalf, 2011. "Property Rights, Resource Access, and Long‐Run Growth," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(4), pages 792-829, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Keay, 2007. "Resource Rents and their Impact on Institutional and Economic Development," Working Paper 1143, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2616, CESifo.
    3. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2016. "Economic Diversification in Resource Rich Countries: Uncovering the State of Knowledge," Working Paper Series 09816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2616, CESifo.
    5. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2016. "Economic Diversification in Resource Rich Countries: Uncovering the State of Knowledge," Working Paper Series 9816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    7. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    8. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    9. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    10. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey Williamson, 2013. "Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century," CEH Discussion Papers 019, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    11. Samuel Wills, 2015. "Seven Principles for Managing Resource Wealth," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    13. Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2017. "Terms of trade volatility, government spending cyclicality, and economic growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 975-989, November.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2016. "Distributional Consequences of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia Over A Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(2), pages 223-244, June.
    16. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    17. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," PSE Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    18. Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2010. "Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 228-243, April.
    19. Henri, Pr Atangana Ondoa, 2019. "Natural resources curse: A reality in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price volatility; resource based growth; simulation modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Babcock (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.