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Export Price Volatility in Australia: An Application of ARCH and GARCH Models

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Abstract

Australia has one of the more volatile set of export prices among OECD countries. This paper examines the extent to which Australia's export prices relate to the world prices using quarterly time-series data spanning the period 1969q4-2002q3. The empirical results based on dynamic least squares method show that Australia's export prices are cointegrated with the global export prices. A short-term dynamic ARCH-in Mean model, which captures the time varying nature of price volatility, has been used to explain the growth rate of Australia's export prices. It is found that (a) changes in Australia's export prices are highly associated with systematic changes in world export prices; (b) the diversification of Australia's export base has contributed to a significant reduction in the volatility of export prices during the study period; and (c) the time varying volatility has not undermined, in a significant manner, the growth rate of Australia's export prices.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012194.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp05-11.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-11

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Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
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Keywords: Export price volatility; Australia; ARCH models; GARCH models;

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  1. Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-19, June.
  2. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1996. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 211-224.
  3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  4. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
  6. Harvie, Charles & Van Hoa, Tran, 1994. "Terms of trade shocks and macroeconomic adjustment in a resource exporting economy : The case of Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 101-112, June.
  7. David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Fisher, Lance A, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-58, December.
  9. Harvie, Charles & van Hoa, Tran, 1993. "Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia : A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 257-261, October.
  10. Doug McTaggart & Colin Rogers, 1990. "Monetary Policy and the Terms of Trade: A Case for Monetary Base Control in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 23(2), pages 38-49.
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