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Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries

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Paul Cashin ()
C. McDermott

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Abstract

What is the effect of shocks to the terms of trade on a country's current account position? The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect predicts that an adverse shock to the terms of trade will worsen the current account balance; in contrast, the prediction of intertemporal models of the current account is dependent on the duration of the shock. This paper examines several features of the terms of trade series of five OECD countries, and the relationship between terms of trade shocks and the current account balance. Median shocks to the terms of trade are found to be highly persistent, yet with a large transitory component, and to account for only a small share of the variability of current account balances in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In contrast, terms of trade shocks are found to account for a relatively large proportion of the variability of current account balances in Australia and New Zealand. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1015292503142
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 219-235
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:219-235

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Keywords: terms of trade shocks; persistence; current account balance;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Park, Jae Ha, 1994. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-36. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 92/98, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Assaf Razin, 1995. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," Working Papers 92-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  1. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Valadkhani, Abbas & Layton, Allan P. & Karunaratne, Neil D., 2005. "Export Price Volatility in Australia: An Application of ARCH and GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers wp05-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olivier, CARDI, 2005. "The Zero-Root Property : Permanent vs Temporary Terms of Trade Shocks," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005030, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Olivier, CARDI, 2005. "Another View of the J-Curve," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2007. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Small Island States," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  7. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugmanÕs intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  8. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Patricia Alonso-Gamo & Stefania Fabrizio & V. Kramarenko & Qing Wang, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement:," IMF Working Papers 02/127, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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