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The Macroeconomic Determinants of Volatility in Precious Metals Markets

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Author Info
Jonathan A. Batten, Cetin Ciner and Brian M. Lucey

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Abstract

We investigate key macroeconomic factors that impact the price returns of precious metals markets. The markets investigated were gold, silver, platinum and palladium; whereas the macroeconomic factors accommodated business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment factors. The key findings present limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the precious metal price series, although there is some evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. This finding lends weight to views that individual commodities are too distinct to be considered a single asset class or represented by a single index; a finding of considerable importance for portfolio managers and investors.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp255.

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Date of creation: 20 Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp255

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  1. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Racine, Jeffrey, 2001. "On the Nonlinear Predictability of Stock Returns Using Financial and Economic Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 380-82, July.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nijman, T. & Swinkels, L., 2003. "Strategic and tactical allocation to commodities for retirement savings schemes," Discussion Paper 20, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  7. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2006. "Information, Trading, and Volatility: Evidence from Weather-Sensitive Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2899-2930, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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