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Unravelling financial market linkages during crises

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  • Vance L. Martin

    (University of Melbourne, Australia)

  • Mardi Dungey

Abstract

An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises, including spillover and contagion effects, are formally specified. The model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks, country and market shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks. The framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. The results provide strong evidence that cross-market links are important. Spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion, but both are statistically significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.936
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2007-v22.1/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 89-119

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:1:p:89-119

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References

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis," Working papers 2002-31, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  5. Solnik, B H, 1974. "The International Pricing of Risk: An Empirical Investigation of the World Capital Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 365-78, May.
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  8. Mico Loretan & William B. English, 2000. "Evaluating "correlation breakdowns" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  19. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  24. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion-Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo & Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Luci Ellis & Eleanor Lewis, 2001. "The Response of Financial Markets in Australia and New Zealand to News about the Asian Crisis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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