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Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper investigates whether terms of trade have an impact on real exchange rates for commodity exporters and oil exporters. To this end, we estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals, including the commodity terms of trade. The estimation relies on panel cointegration techniques and covers annual data from 1980 to 2007. Our results show that real exchange rates co-move with commodity prices in the long run and respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices. We also find that some pegged currencies have been driven away from their equilibria by wild fluctuations in the key currencies, on which they are anchored.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01400.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 34 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (09)
Pages: 1557-1592

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:34:y:2011:i:9:p:1557-1592

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "On the impact of oil price volatility on the real exchange rate–terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-3, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  2. Al-Abri, Almukhtar Saif, 2014. "Optimal exchange rate policy for a small oil-exporting country: A dynamic general equilibrium perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-98.
  3. Carl Grekou, 2014. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-4, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  4. Virginie Coudert, 2009. "Mythes et réalités de la « zone dollar »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 151-169.
  5. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
  6. Vincent BODART & Bertrand CANDELON & Jean-François CARPANTIER, 2014. "Real exchange rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries," Working Papers 2014-046, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  8. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
  9. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & David Guerreiro & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-34, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  10. Jay, Squalli, 2011. "Is the dollar peg suitable for the largest economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 496-512, October.
  11. V. Coudert & C. Couharde & V. Mignon, 2013. "Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5076-5085, December.
  12. Buetzer, Sascha & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 1442, European Central Bank.
  13. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Oil-Price Boom and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," IMF Working Papers 11/268, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Hassan Suleiman & Zahid Muhammad, 2011. "The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," FIW Working Paper series 072, FIW.
  15. Gilles Duffrenot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2010. "Pegging the future West African single currency in regard to internal/external competitiveness: a counterfactual analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp974, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  16. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2011. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  17. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00845254 is not listed on IDEAS

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