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Inflation Targeting and Pass-through Rate in East Asian Economies

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  • Hiroyuki Taguchi

    (Policy Research Institute)

  • Woong-Ki Sohn

Abstract

This article sets out to assess the performance of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks from the perspective of the pass-through effect of external price shocks into consumer price inflation, focusing on the four East Asian economies which have adopted IT, during the period of 1990-2009. We first examine their monetary policy rules to identify the IT implementation, and then investigate the linkage between inflation-responsive rules and pass-through rates, as suggested by Gagnon and Ihrig (2004). Our main findings are as follows. First, under the IT adoption, Korea has taken an inflation responsive rule in a forward-looking manner, while Indonesia and Thailand have adopted the rule in a backward-looking manner. Second, only Korea has lost pass-through under IT adoption, thereby showing the clear linkage between inflation-responsive rules and the loss of pass-through. Third, the sensitivity test of inflation expectations to import price shocks in Korea also supports this linkage. These findings imply that IT adoption, if conducted in a forward-looking manner, can be a resisting power against external price shocks, even in small, open, emerging market economies, as tested under the latest global financial crisis in Korea.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23115.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23115

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Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
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Related research

Keywords: inflation targeting; pass-through; East Asian emerging market economies; policy reaction function; inflation expectations;

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Hiroyuki Taguchi, 2009. "Currency Regime and Monetary Autonomy," Finance Working Papers 23076, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  8. Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?," NBER Working Papers 10818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 409, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
  13. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  14. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. repec:nbr:nberwo:12876 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Reza Siregar & Siwei Goo, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences Of Indonesia And Thailand," CAMA Working Papers 2008-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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