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Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification

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Abstract

We re-examine the evidence on the new Phillips curve model of Gali and Gertler (Journal of Monetary Economics 1999) using the conditional score test of Kleibergen (Econometrica 2005), which is robust to weak identification. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are consistent both with the view that inflation dynamics are forward-looking, and with the opposite view that they are predominantly backward-looking. Moreover, the labor share does not appear to be a relevant determinant of inflation. We show that this is an important factor contributing to the weak identification of the Phillips curve.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006-13.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2006-13

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rygh Swensen, Anders & Tveter, Eivind, 2011. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Memorandum 23/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  2. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jér�me Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor analysis in a model with rational expectations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 271-286, 07.
  3. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
  4. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
  5. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  6. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1494, December.
  7. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
  8. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve revisited," Discussion Papers 500, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  9. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.

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