This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An empirical assessment

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Florian PELGRIN
Alain GUAY
Richard LUGER

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The recent works of Gali and Gertler (1999) and Gali, Gertler and Lopez-Salido (2001) provide evidence supporting the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). This model posits the dynamics of inflation as being forward-looking and related to real marginal costs. In this paper, we examine the empirical relevance of their results for the United States. Our approach addresses several important econometric issues with the standard approaches typically used for estimation and inference in NKPC models. Using the continously-updated GMM estimator proposed by Hansen, Heaton and Yaron (1996) and the 3-step GMM estimator developed by Bonnal and Renault (2003), the empirical evidence of the NKPC is rather mixed. Specifically, results are sensitive to the instruments sets, normalisation, estimators, the sample period and revisions of data

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/esNASM04/up.27251.1075496817.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 418.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:418

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: GMM; Phillips Curve; Inflation dynamics;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McAleer, Michael & McKenzie, C R, 1991. "Keynesian and New Classical Models of Unemployment Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 359-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael McAleer & C. R. McKenzie, 1991. "When are two step estimators efficient?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 235-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-80, July.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Eric JONDEAU & Herve LE BIHAN, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the "New Phillips Curve")," Econometrics 0303006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 517-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Back, Kerry & Brown, David P, 1993. "Implied Probabilities in GMM Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 971-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David L½pez-Salido, . "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Michael Dotsey, 2002. "Pitfalls in interpreting tests of backward-looking pricing in New Keynesian models," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 37-50. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alastair Hall & Fernanda P. M. Peixe, 2000. "A Consistent Method for the Selection of Relevant Instruments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0790, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  20. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 199822, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  23. Nicoletta Batini & Brian Jackson & Stephen Nickell, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics and the Labour Share in the UK," Discussion Papers 02, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  24. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999. [Downloadable!]
  26. Alastair R. Hall, 2000. "Covariance Matrix Estimation and the Power of the Overidentifying Restrictions Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1517-1528, November.
  27. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Khan, Hashmat & Zhu, Zhenhua, 2006. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 195-207, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 222, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  34. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1985. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 370-79, October.
    Other versions:
  35. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 496, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frode Brevik & Manfred Gärtner, 2005. "Partisan Theory and the New Keynesian and Sticky-Information Phillips Curves," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 785, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Janko Gorter, 2005. "Subjective Expectations and New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Europe," DNB Working Papers 049, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was launched in September 1997.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.