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Using Implied Probabilities to Improve Estimation with Unconditional Moment Restrictions

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  • Alain Guay
  • Florian Pelgrin
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we investigate the information content of implied probabilities (Back and Brown, 1993) to improve estimation in unconditional moment conditions models. We propose and evaluate two 3-step euclidian empirical likelihood estimators and their bias-correction versions for weakly dependent data. The first one is the time series extension of the 3S-EEL proposed by Antoine, Bonnal and Renault (2007).The second one is new and uses in contrast only an estimator of the weighting matrix at an efficient 2-step GMM estimator, while leaving unrestricted the Jacobian matrix. Both estimators use implied probabilities to achieve higher-order improvements relative to the traditional GMM estimator. A Monte-Carlo study reveals that the finite and large sample properties of the (bias-corrected) 3-step estimators compare very favorably to the existing approaches: the 2-step GMM and the continuous updating estimator. As an application, we re-assess the empirical evidence regarding the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the US.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0747.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0747

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    Related research

    Keywords: Information-based inference; Implied probabilities; Weak identification; Generalized method of moments; Philips curve;

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    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2009. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 561-571, December.
    2. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.

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