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Estimating forward-looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal-instruments approach

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  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
  • Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

We compare different methods for estimating forwardlooking output and inflation equations and show that weak identification can be an issue in conventional GMM estimation. GMM and maximum likelihood procedures that impose the dynamic constraints implied by the forwardlooking relation on the instruments set are found to be more reliable than conventional GMM. These “optimal instruments” procedures provide a robust alternative to estimating dynamic macroeconomic relations, and suggest only a limited role for expectational terms.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 87-114

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:p:87-114

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics;

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  1. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
  2. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
  3. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 1999. "Vector rational error correction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1299-1327, September.
  5. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
  7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
  9. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
  10. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  11. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:2:p:222-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an Identification Robust Econometric Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2005s-30, CIRANO.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Working Papers 07-56, Bank of Canada.
  3. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabià Gumbau-Brisa & Denny Lie & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2011. "Estimation of forward-looking relationships in closed form: an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Papers 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Changes in the output Euler equation and asset markets participation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1659-1672.
  5. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification," Working Papers 2006-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  6. Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  8. Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2006. "Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers 623, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  9. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenzo Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 97, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  10. Ben Ali, Samir, 2010. "A New Keynesian Phillips curve for Tunisia : Estimation and analysis of sensitivity," MPRA Paper 29624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve and the cyclicality of marginal cost," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 747-765, September.
  12. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.

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