Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Estimating forward-looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal-instruments approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
  • Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

We compare different methods for estimating forwardlooking output and inflation equations and show that weak identification can be an issue in conventional GMM estimation. GMM and maximum likelihood procedures that impose the dynamic constraints implied by the forwardlooking relation on the instruments set are found to be more reliable than conventional GMM. These “optimal instruments” procedures provide a robust alternative to estimating dynamic macroeconomic relations, and suggest only a limited role for expectational terms.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/events/conferences/mmp2004/pdf/Fuhrer-Olivei.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 87-114

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:p:87-114

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Econometric models ; Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
  5. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1998. "Vector rational error correction," Research Working Paper 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
  8. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
  9. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:2:p:222-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  12. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Barnes, Michelle L. & Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià & Lie, Denny & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2011. "Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2011-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  2. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification," Working Papers 2006-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  4. Sandeep Mazumder, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost," Economics Working Paper Archive 545, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  5. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1707-1727.
  6. Ben Ali, Samir, 2010. "A New Keynesian Phillips curve for Tunisia : Estimation and analysis of sensitivity," MPRA Paper 29624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2006. "Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers 623, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680647, HAL.
  9. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
  10. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenzo Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 97, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  11. Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Working Papers 78, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  12. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:p:87-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.