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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment

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Author Info
Florian PELGRIN
GUAY Alain
LUGER Richard

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Abstract

The recent works of Gali and Gertler (1999) and Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001) provided evidence supporting the NKPC for the United States and the euro area. However, several econometric problems have been discussed in the literature on the empirical relevance of their results (among others, see Rudd and Whelan, 2003; Lindé, 2003; Nason and Smith, 2003). This paper reexamines the empirical relevance of the NKPC for the United States. In particular, we address several important econometric issues related to the estimation and inference procedures typically used for NKPC models. These include the potential bias of GMM estimates in the presence of many instruments, the low power of specification tests based on overidentifying restrictions, and issues related to the estimation of the variance-covariance matrix. In order to mitigate these problems, we estimate various other specifications of the NKPC using the continuously-updated GMM estimator (CUE) developed by Hansen, Heaton and Yaron (1996) and the 3-step GMM estimator of Bonnal and Renault (2001, 2003). These two estimators have better finite-sample properties compared to usual two-step GMM estimator. Our results show that the empirical evidence of the real marginal cost in the NKPC is rather mixed and that the backward-looking component plays a significant role. These results are robust using different sample periods, different measures of inflation and marginal costs.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 212.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:212

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; Inflation dynamics; GMM;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 496, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frode Brevik & Manfred Gärtner, 2005. "Partisan Theory and the New Keynesian and Sticky-Information Phillips Curves," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 785, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Janko Gorter, 2005. "Subjective Expectations and New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Europe," DNB Working Papers 049, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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