IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v31y2009i4p561-571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martins, Luis F.
  • Gabriel, Vasco J.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine parameter identification in the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve proposed by Gali and Gertler [Gali, J., Gertler, M., 1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222]. We employ recently developed moment conditions inference procedures, which provide a more efficient and reliable econometric framework for the analysis of the NKPC. In particular, we address the issue of parameter identification, obtaining robust confidence sets for the model's parameters. Our results cast serious doubts on the empirical validity of the NKPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2009. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves and potential identification failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 561-571, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:561-571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164-0704(09)00007-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, January.
    2. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    3. Gwin, Carl R. & VanHoose, David D., 2008. "Alternative measures of marginal cost and inflation in estimations of new Keynesian inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 928-940, September.
    4. Guggenberger, Patrik & Smith, Richard J., 2005. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators And Tests Under Partial, Weak, And Strong Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 667-709, August.
    5. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
    6. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    7. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1707-1727.
    8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    9. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    10. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    12. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    13. Guggenberger, Patrik & Smith, Richard J., 2008. "Generalized empirical likelihood tests in time series models with potential identification failure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 134-161, January.
    14. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    15. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    16. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    17. Frank Kleibergen, 2005. "Testing Parameters in GMM Without Assuming that They Are Identified," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1103-1123, July.
    18. Otsu, Taisuke, 2006. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference For Nonlinear And Time Series Models Under Weak Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 513-527, June.
    19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    20. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
    21. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August.
    22. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2005. "GMM, GEL, Serial Correlation, and Asymptotic Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 983-1002, May.
    23. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    24. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    25. Alain Guay & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Using Implied Probabilities to Improve Estimation with Unconditional Moment Restrictions," Cahiers de recherche 0747, CIRPEE.
    26. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-280, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gross, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
    2. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. PETER McADAM & ALPO WILLMAN, 2013. "Technology, Utilization, and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1547-1579, December.
    5. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    6. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    7. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
    9. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    10. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral," MPRA Paper 42921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2012.
    11. Jakub Mućk & Peter McAdam & Jakub Growiec, 2018. "Will The “True” Labor Share Stand Up? An Applied Survey On Labor Share Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 961-984, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    2. Alain Guay & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Using Implied Probabilities to Improve Estimation with Unconditional Moment Restrictions," Cahiers de recherche 0747, CIRPEE.
    3. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
    4. Paul Levine & Luis F. Martins & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2006. "Robust Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0206, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    5. Alain Guay & Florian Pelgrin, 2016. "Using Implied Probabilities to Improve the Estimation of Unconditional Moment Restrictions for Weakly Dependent Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 344-372, March.
    6. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification," Working Papers 2006-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    7. Guggenberger, Patrik & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S. & Smith, Richard J., 2012. "GEL statistics under weak identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 331-349.
    8. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    9. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 361-395.
    10. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
    11. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne A., 2016. "Unit Total Costs: An Alternative Marginal Cost Proxy for Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(7), pages 1826-1849.
    12. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea, 2015. "Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Information and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers dp15-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised 25 Aug 2016.
    13. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2010. "The Cost Channel Reconsidered: A Comment Using an Identification‐Robust Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1703-1712, December.
    14. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    15. Florian PELGRIN & Alain GUAY & Richard LUGER, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An empirical assessment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 418, Econometric Society.
    16. Choi, Yoonseok, 2021. "Inflation dynamics, the role of inflation at different horizons and inflation uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 649-662.
    17. Holmberg, Karolina, 2006. "Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 197, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Guggenberger, Patrik & Smith, Richard J., 2008. "Generalized empirical likelihood tests in time series models with potential identification failure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 134-161, January.
    19. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    20. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:561-571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.