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The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look

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  • Mehra Yash P

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    (Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

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    Abstract

    The empirical test of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is often implemented by estimating a hybrid specification that includes both lagged and future inflation and then by examining whether the estimated coefficient on future inflation is significantly larger than the one on lagged inflation. This article presents evidence that supply shocks matter. Results in previous research – the output gap is irrelevant and expected future inflation is the major determinant of inflation – arise if the hybrid specification is estimated omitting supply shocks and/or lagged inflation. With supply shocks included, the output gap is significant and the estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is significantly larger than the one on future inflation. The estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is unity if in the hybrid specification inflation responds also to a change in the output gap. Together these results suggest that expected future inflation is not the major determinant of current inflation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 (December)
    Pages: 1-19

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    Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:17

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    Cited by:
    1. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Satchi, Mathan & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2011. "Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy," OxCarre Working Papers 063, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2007. "Inflation Targeting as a Signalling Mechanism," Working Papers 0701, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    4. Luojia Hu & Maude Toussaint-Comeau, 2010. "Do labor market activities help predict inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 52-63.
    5. Svan Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2007. "Debt Stabilisation Bias And The Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy In A New Keynesian Model With Government Debt And Inflation Persistence," CAMA Working Papers 2007-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, 07.
    7. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Inflation Bias with Dynamic Phillips Curves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
    9. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tomasz Michalak & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2009. "Strategic Interactions between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities in a Multi-Country New-Keynesian Model of a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2534, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2007. "Inflation persistence: Implications for a design of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to external shocks," CEIS Research Paper 93, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.

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