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Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China

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  • Stefan Gerlach
  • Wensheng Peng

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority - Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR))

Abstract

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982 – 2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standards Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 194.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:194

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Keywords: output gap; omitted variables; Phillips curve; China;

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References

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  1. Chow, Gregory C, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
  3. Mohsin S. Khan & Zuliu Hu, 1996. "Why is China Growing so Fast?," IMF Working Papers 96/75, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
  5. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine," Development and Comp Systems 0310001, EconWPA.
  6. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
  7. Stefan E. Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Borensztein, Eduardo & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1996. "Accounting for China's Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 224-28, May.
  9. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kaaresvirta, Juuso & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2008. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2009. "Regional Inflation in China," MPRA Paper 24722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?," Occasional Paper Series 80, European Central Bank.
  5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
  6. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
  7. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Osman, Mohammad & Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?," MPRA Paper 11612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Antonin Rusek, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in New EU Member States: The Czech Case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 191-204, May.
  10. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
  12. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
  13. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
  14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.

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