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Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China

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Author Info
Stefan Gerlach
Wensheng Peng (Hong Kong Monetary Authority - Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR))

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Abstract

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982 – 2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standards Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 194.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:194

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Related research
Keywords: output gap; omitted variables; Phillips curve; China;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine," Development and Comp Systems 0310001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antonin Rusek, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in New EU Member States: The Czech Case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 191-204, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Aaron Mehrotra & Tuomas Peltonen & Alvaro Santos Rivera, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective," Working Paper Series 829, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Matthieu Bussière & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?," Occasional Paper Series 80, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kaaresvirta, Juuso & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Osman, Mohammad & Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?," MPRA Paper 11612, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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