China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model
AbstractThe present paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework; namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that (i) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (ii) driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985-1990, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991-1996 and the post-1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations. Copyright 2005 East Asian Economic Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by East Asian Economic Association in its journal Asian Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1351-3958
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Other versions of this item:
- Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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