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Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong

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  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra

Abstract

This paper uses annual data spanning 1962 to 2003 to examine whether business and inflation cycles have become more similar across Chinese provinces as the economy has been liberalised and modernised. We find evidence of synchronisation, although business cycles in a group of mainly northwestern provinces appear to have diverged from those in the rest of China. Both the business and inflation cycles in Hong Kong seem to have become increasingly synchronised with those in the Mainland over recent years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 404-418

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:404-418

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: China Hong Kong Business cycles Inflation cycles Synchronisation;

References

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  1. GERLACH, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 210-225.
  2. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
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  6. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt01g0h0q2, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
  9. Tang, K. K., 1998. "Economic Integration of the Chinese Provinces: A Business Cycle Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 549-570.
  10. Jahangir Aziz & Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," Development and Comp Systems 0012004, EconWPA.
  11. Carsten A. Holz, 2004. "China's Statistical System in Transition: Challenges, Data Problems, and Institutional Innovations," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(3), pages 381-409, 09.
  12. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  13. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
  14. Giles, John & Park, Albert & Zhang, Juwei, 2005. "What is China's true unemployment rate?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-170.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.

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