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Do macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange market pressure? Evidence from bounds testing approach for Turkey

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  • Katircioglu, Salih Turan
  • Feridun, Mete

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) and macroeconomic fundamentals in Turkey using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) within the framework of the canonical currency crisis models. The results of the bounds tests suggest the existence of a level relationship between EMP and the selected macroeconomic fundamentals. The results of the VECM also suggest that there exists a unidirectional causation that runs from those macroeconomic fundamentals to EMP in the case of the Turkish Economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Feridun, Mete, 2010. "Do macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange market pressure? Evidence from bounds testing approach for Turkey," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 7916, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:7916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cem Akyurek, 2006. "The Turkish Crisis of 2001: A Classic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 5-32, February.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
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    5. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    7. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    8. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Inci Parlaktuna, 2005. "Exchange market pressure in Turkey 1993-2004: an application of the girton-roper monetary model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 51-62.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Hasan Güngör, 2019. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Market Pressure," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    2. Ammar Hamad Khalaf, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index And Monetary Policy In Iraq," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(219), pages 61-82, October –.
    3. Bassam AbuAl-Foul, "undated". "The Causal Relation between Savings and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Working Papers 06-05/2015, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.

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