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Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

  • Deniz Atasoy
  • Sweta C. Saxena

Scholars agree that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, finding that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by Turkish exporters that the lira's overvaluation is responsible for Turkey's uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability.

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Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 29-45

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:29-45
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  1. Asikoglu, Yaman & Uctum, Merih, 1992. "A critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1501-1514, October.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
  4. Giyas Gökkent & Carlos Moslares & Rafael Amiel-Saenz, 2003. "Failure of an Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 35-67, January.
  5. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
  6. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  7. Ahmet N. Kipici, 1996. "Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 9615, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  9. K. Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Ahmet Yucel, 2002. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1807-1812.
  10. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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