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Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz Atasoy
  • Sweta C. Saxena

Abstract

Scholars agree that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, finding that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by Turkish exporters that the lira's overvaluation is responsible for Turkey's uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Atasoy & Sweta C. Saxena, 2006. "Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 29-45, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:29-45
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    Cited by:

    1. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    2. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Abdullahil Mamun & Harun Bal & Shahanara Basher & Md Mahi Uddin & Nazamul Hoque, 2023. "Growth Effects of Currency Misalignment and Capital Flight in Turkey," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(2), pages 221-250, May.
    4. Emre Akusta, 2026. "Can Renewable Energy Mitigate Inflationary Pressures from Energy Imports? Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2603.21815, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    5. Khalid, Waqar & Civcir, Irfan & Özdeşer, Hüseyin & Iqbal, Javed, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1184-1203.
    6. Kiptui, Moses C. & Ndirangu, Lydia, 2015. "Determinants of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and its Misalignment in Kenya: A Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach," MPRA Paper 70542, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2016.
    7. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    8. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    9. Kadjatou Dakoure & Mahamadou Diarra & M. Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2023. "Role of the choice of exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignments in South Sahara African countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 425-455, July.
    10. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    12. Toraganlı, Nazlı & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2016. "Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 433-443.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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