IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

  • Deniz Atasoy
  • Sweta C. Saxena

Scholars agree that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, finding that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by Turkish exporters that the lira's overvaluation is responsible for Turkey's uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=R135G500817H4723
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 29-45

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:29-45
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Giyas Gökkent & Carlos Moslares & Rafael Amiel-Saenz, 2003. "Failure of an Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 35-67, January.
  2. James G. MacKinnon, 1992. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 861, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. K.K.S. Dadzie, 1992. "Trade and Development Report, 1992 An Overview," Foreign Trade Review, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, vol. 27(1), pages 85-94, April.
  5. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  6. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 1997. "Sierra Leone; Recent Economic Developments," IMF Staff Country Reports 97/47, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
  9. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  10. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  11. Asikoglu, Yaman & Uctum, Merih, 1992. "A critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1501-1514, October.
  12. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  13. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Dec.
  15. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug.
  16. Giyas Gökkent & Carlos Moslares & Rafael Amiel-Saenz, 2003. "Failure of an Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 35-67, January.
  17. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,†“Outs,†and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. -, 1997. "Summary of global economic developments, 1996," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 27419, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  20. K. Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Ahmet Yucel, 2002. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1807-1812.
  21. Ahmet N. Kipici, 1996. "Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 9615, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  22. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  23. Undp, 1997. "HDR 1997 - Human Development to Eradicate Poverty," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr1997.
  24. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
  25. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Anonymous, 1997. "A Conversation About Community Development," Miscellaneous Publications 31763, University of Saskatchewan, Centre for the Study of Co-operatives.
  27. Undp, 1992. "HDR 1992 - Global Dimensions of Human Development," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr1992.
  28. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  29. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  30. anonymous, 1997. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  31. Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980-1998," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-563.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:29-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.