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Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

  • Deniz Atasoy

    (Undersecretariat of Customs of Turkey)

  • Sweta C. Saxena

    (University of Pittsburgh)

There is a consensus among scholars that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey and finds that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by the Turkish exporters that lira’s overvaluation is responsible for Turkey’s uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0508/0508002.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0508002.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 07 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0508002
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  2. Asikoglu, Yaman & Uctum, Merih, 1992. "A critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1501-1514, October.
  3. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  4. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  5. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
  6. E. Murat Ucer & C. John McDermott & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate; The Case of Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/1, International Monetary Fund.
  7. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
  9. Ahmet N. Kipici, 1996. "Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 9615, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  10. Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. K. Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Ahmet Yucel, 2002. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1807-1812.
  12. Giyas Gökkent & Carlos Moslares & Rafael Amiel-Saenz, 2003. "Failure of an Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 35-67, January.
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