Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

“Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change”

Contents:

Author Info

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal
  • Fernando Barbi

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange rate that guarantees the stability of the net foreign asset position over time. An econometric model is estimated using a Vector Error Correction Model with structural breaks. The main conclusion of the paper is that the Brazilian exchange rate is below its long run values. The model also suggests that the improvement in fundamentals observed in the recent past is about to end. The level of misalignment is estimated at 18% in third quarter of 2009.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://cpq.fearp.usp.br:2300/textos_discussao/eco/TD-E10-2010.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Failed to connect to FTP server cpq.fearp.usp.br: Net::FTP: connect: 10060. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Bruno Vizona Liberato)
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 10-2010.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:10-2010

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Avenida dos Bandeirantes, 3900 Ribeirão Preto - SP
Phone: (016) 633-5617
Fax: (016) 633-6133
Web page: http://www.cpq.fearp.usp.br/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: cointegração; mudança estrutural; taxa de câmbio real e desalinhamento;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2005. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies:," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 14, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kristian Nilsson, 2004. "Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 603-622, December.
  4. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 07/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  6. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
  7. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  8. Bent Nielsen & Takamitsu Kurita, 2004. "Short-run parameter changes in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  10. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  13. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Megumi Kubota, . "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  15. Satish Chand, 2001. "How misaligned is the Australian real exchange rate?," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec01-2, International and Development Economics.
  16. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  17. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  19. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
  20. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:10-2010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruno Vizona Liberato).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.