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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?

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  • Balázs Égert

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Abstract

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp770.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp770.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-770

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Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson; Dutch Disease; Bulgaria; Croatia; Romania; Russia; Ukraine; Turkey;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2013. "Non-price competitiveness of exports from emerging countries," Working Paper Series 1612, European Central Bank.
  2. Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund.
  3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Trunin, Pavel & Knyazev, Dmitriy & Kudykina, Ekaterina, 2010. "Анализ Факторов Динамики Обменного Курса Рубля
    [Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 33944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Aziz Hayat & Bahodir Ganiev & Xueli Tang, 2012. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Financial Econometics Series 2012_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  6. Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
  7. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
  8. Onishchenko, Kateryna, 2011. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  9. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  10. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Hayat, Aziz & Ganiev, Bahodir & Tang, Xueli, 2013. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1274-1285.
  12. Stephan Barisitz, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements and Monetary Policy in Southeastern Europe and Turkey: Some Stylized Facts," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  13. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  14. Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C. Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Altar, Moisa & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Dumitru, Ionut & Necula, Ciprian, 2009. "Estimation of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and of Deviations for Romania," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090105, National Institute of Economic Research.

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