Advanced Search

Papers Articles Authors Institutions Data (FRED®)

Abstract

Poland is obligated to adopt the euro after the fulfilment, inter alia, of the exchange rate criterion which requires entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The European Central Bank recommends that the ERM II central rate should reflect the best possible assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate. In this paper we use the BEER and PEER approach to estimate real Polish zloty/euro equilibrium rate. Although the main goal of our analysis is to compute measures of current and total misalignment, we also check the sensitivity of the equilibrium exchange rate estimates to our choice of the risk premium proxy as well as to our approach for computing the total misalignment. We demonstrate that the BEER/PEER estimates of the PLN/EUR rate are statistically robust and that this approach may be useful for setting the central parity rate at which the zloty enters ERM II.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/55_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 55.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Length: 35
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:55

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21
Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate; BEER; PEER; cointegration analysis; Gonzalo-Granger decomposition; ERM II;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
• F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
   
   • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
   • Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 00/123, International Monetary Fund.
2. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
4. Jun Nagayasu & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials - A Panel Study," IMF Working Papers 99/37, International Monetary Fund.
   
   • Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2000. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Panel Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 5.
5. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
6. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
   
   • Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
7. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
   
   • Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
8. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
   
   • Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
   • Francisco Maeso Fernandez & Bernd Schnatz & Chiara Osbat, 2001. "Determinants of the Euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," Working Paper Series 085, European Central Bank.
9. Ravn, M.O. & Uhlig, H., 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the frequency of observations," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
   
   • Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
10. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank.
11. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
    
    • László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
12. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    
    • Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    • Gonzalo, Jesús & Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John), . "Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/744, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
13. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
14. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
15. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, September.
16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
17. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
18. Enrique Alberola & Daniel Navia, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU members: external imbalances vs. real convergence," Banco de España Working Papers 0708, Banco de España.
19. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
20. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
21. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
    
    • Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership," Working Papers 2002-15, CEPII research center.
22. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2002. "Monetary policy aspects of the enlargement of the Euro area," Research Notes 4, Deutsche Bank Research.
23. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.

Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Cited by:

1. Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, 2009. "Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 1(1), pages 35-55, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:55

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ewa Szymecka).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

---

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.

Privacy Legal