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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty

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  • Balázs Égert

    ()

  • Kirsten Lommatzsch

    ()

Abstract

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp676.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2004-676.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-676

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Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Tradable Prices; Transition; Cointegration;

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  1. Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December.
  2. Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Camille Baulant & Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1221-1236.
  8. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  11. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & McDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Uwe Dulleck & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer & Julia Woerz, 2005. "Dimensions of quality upgrading," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 51-76, 01.
  13. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  14. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
  15. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  17. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  18. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
  19. Balázs Egert, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, 02.
  20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  21. Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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