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Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries The EMU Enlargement Perspective

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Author Info
Balazs Egert
Amina Lahreche-Revil

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Abstract

This paper offers an empirical analysis of the real equilibrium exchange rate for 5 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the prospect of their future E(M)U entry. The fundamental equilibrium exchange rate is estimated using a new empirical approach, where the internal and external balances are estimated simultaneously with the real exchange rate, and their long-term values are used to compute the equilibrium exchange rate.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2003-05.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-05

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rates; EU enlargement; econometric analysis; EMU; transition economies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chonira Aturupane & Simeon Djankov & Bernard Hoekman, 1999. "Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade between Eastern Europe and the European union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 62-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Virginie Coudert, 1999. "Comment definir un taux de change d'equilibre pour les pays emergents ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 1Q, pages 45-66. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ben-David, Dan, 1996. "Trade and convergence among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 279-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Virginie Coudert & Cecile Couharde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership," Working Papers 2002-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Olga Arratibel & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela & Christian Thimann, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Freudenberg & Francoise Lemoine, 1999. "Central And Eastern European Countries In The International Division Of Labour In Europe," Working Papers 1999-05, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2000. "Options For The Exchange Rate Policies Of The EU Accession Countries (And Other Emerging Market Economies)," CEPR Discussion Papers 2379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2005. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU members," Working Papers 0719, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Arghyrou & Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2005. "Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: Nominal exchange rates, output shocks and non linear/asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in Central Europe," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bertrand Candelon & Clemens Kool & Katharina Raabe & Tom van Veen, 2005. "The Feasibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for New EU-members: Evidence from Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 05-09, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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