The Feasibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for New EU-members Evidence from Real Exchange Rates
AbstractAbstract In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future rises in productivity cannot be excluded on the basis of either our own analysis or the literature as a whole. Consequently, inflation pressure and real exchange rate appreciation in the accession countries probably remain a fact of life in the near future. The extent to which this is a problem for a fixed nominal exchange rate regime is hard to determine. Price dynamics in the accession countries are still quite flexible to accommodate substantial real exchange rate movements even when the nominal exchange rate is rather fixed; moreover, that price adjustment is mostly an internal process for the accession countries. Overall we conclude that a fixed exchange rate regime for each of the accession countries would be feasible in itself, despite possible future real exchange rate appreciations due to either the Balassa-Samuelson effect or demand shifts. We find current misalignments to be small, robust and generally in line with the literature. This implies current exchange rate levels provide a reasonable indication of the level at which a parity exchange rate could be set.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 with number 20.
Date of creation: 03 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html
Other versions of this item:
- Candelon,Bertrand & Kool,Clemens & Raabe,Katharina & Veen,Tom,van, 2005. "The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates," Research Memorandum 010, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Bertrand Candelon & C.J.M. Kool & K. Raabe & T. van Veen, 2005. "The fundamentals behind the real exchange rate developments of the new EU members," Working Papers 05-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
- NEP-ALL-2006-03-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2006-03-05 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2006-03-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-03-05 (International Finance)
- NEP-TRA-2006-03-05 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- International Monetary Fund, 2001.
"Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
01/56, International Monetary Fund.
- De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
- Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
- Byung-Yeon Kim & Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," Macroeconomics 0212014, EconWPA.
- Katerina Smidkova & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2002.
"Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries,"
2002/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(4).
- Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2003.
"Catching Up: The Role of Demand, Supply and Regulated Price Effects on the Real Exchange Rates of Four Accession Countries,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
899, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, 03.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
- Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald McDonald, 2004.
"The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs,"
- Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04.
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & McDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, . "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership,"
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership," Working Papers 2002-15, CEPII research center.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Peter Pedroni, 2000.
"Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELFM: RATS procedure to perform panel data group mean FMOLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00151, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999.
"Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview of Some Recent Developments,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1221, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
- Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.