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Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries

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  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Cezary WÛjcik

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to examine the exchange rate behaviour of a group of four transitional, EU accession countries, with a view to making policy recommendations regarding their full accession to the European Monetary Union. We employ a dynamic OLS panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply- and demand-side effects are important for the accession countries, although their overall effect on inflation differentials and competitiveness seems to be small. An additional focus of the paper is the examination of the role that administrated, or regulated, prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in the real exchange rate dynamics. Using a unique database we show that administrative prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries. The distribution sector is shown to have an independent effect on the internal price ratio over and above that generated by the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 12 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 153-179

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:1:p:153-179

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References

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  1. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: the Role of the Distribution Sector," CESifo Working Paper Series 442, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," Papers 521, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-15, March.
  5. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  9. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect," IMF Working Papers 01/38, International Monetary Fund.
  10. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
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  12. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the Beer," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
  14. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  18. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  20. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  22. Égert, Balázs, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  23. MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F673-91, November.
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