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The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies

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Author Info
Balazs Egert
Amina Lahreche-Revil
Kirsten Lommatzsch

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Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates for the new EU member states and candidate countries, relying on an asset model inspired by Aglietta et al. (1998) and Alberola et al. (1999, 2002). The impact of productivity gains on both the Balassa-Samuelson effect and the behaviour of the tradable real exchange rate is especially assessed. Subdividing the panel into sub-panels, we show that the B-S effect is a common feature to all economies, but that the tradable price-based real appreciation is a distinct feature of transition and emerging economies. We also show that in transition countries, a decrease in net foreign assets leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate, instead of the depreciation predicted by theory. Comparing in-sample and out-of-sample estimates (in terms of the country coverage) of equilibrium exchange rates shows that these measures can yield different results, and could therefore be considered as complementary tools in judging misalignments.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2004-15.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-15

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Related research
Keywords: real equilibrium exchange rate; EU enlargement; Balassa-Samuelson effect; productivity; net foreign assets; out-of sample panel;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lionel Fontagne & Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets?," Working Papers 2004-04, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michel Fouquin & Khalid Sekkat & J. Malek Mansour & Nanno Mulder & Laurence Nayman, 2001. "Sector Sensitivity to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Working Papers 2001-11, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro Will Be Strong: An Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  7. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Mathilde Maurel, 2002. "Impacts economiques et sociaux de l'elargissement pour l'Union europeenne et la France," Working Papers 2002-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  15. PETER BACKÉ & JARKO FIDRMUC & THOMAS REININGER & FRANZ SCHARDAX, 2003. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 42-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
  20. M. Beine & A. Bénassy-Quéré & E. Dauchy & R. MacDonald, 2002. "The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity," THEMA Working Papers 2002-22, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Patricia Alonso-Gamo & Stefania Fabrizio & V. Kramarenko & Qing Wang, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement:," IMF Working Papers 02/127, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2001. "Effet frontiere, integration economique et "Forteresse Europe"," Working Papers 2001-06, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  24. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
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  26. Man-Keung Tang & Jaewoo Lee, 2003. "Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 03/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José García-Solanes & Francisco I. Sancho-Portero & Fernando Torrejón-Flores, 2007. "Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2006. "Euro-Area Inflation: does the Balassa–Samuelson effect matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 105-136, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Enrique Alberola & Daniel Navia, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU members: external imbalances vs. real convergence," Banco de España Working Papers 0708, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Arghyrou & Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2005. "Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: Nominal exchange rates, output shocks and non linear/asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in Central Europe," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hedi Bchir & Sebastien Jean & David Laborde, 2005. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Working Papers 2005-18, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Égert, Balázs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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