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The Feasibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for New EU-members: Evidence from Real Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Bertrand Candelon
Clemens Kool ()
Katharina Raabe ()
Tom van Veen

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Abstract

In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 19932003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future rises in productivity cannot be excluded on the basis of either our own analysis or the literature as a whole. Consequently, inflation pressure and real exchange rate appreciation in the accession countries probably remain a fact of life in the near future. The extent to which this is a problem for a fixed nominal exchange rate regime is hard to determine. Price dynamics in the accession countries are still quite flexible to accommodate substantial real exchange rate movements even when the nominal exchange rate is rather fixed; moreover, that price adjustment is mostly an internal process for the accession countries. Overall we conclude that a fixed exchange rate regime for each of the accession countries would be feasible in itself, despite possible future real exchange rate appreciations due to either the BalassaSamuelson effect or demand shifts. We find current misalignments to be small, robust and generally in line with the literature. This implies current exchange rate levels provide a reasonable indication of the level at which a parity exchange rate could be set.

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Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-09.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0509

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Keywords: real exchange rate; misalignments; Balassa-Samuelson; panel cointegration;

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  2. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Katerina Smidkova & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2002. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries," Working Papers 2002/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  4. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to calculate equilibrium exchange rates : an overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Harris, R. & Tzavalis, E., 1996. "Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels," Discussion Papers 96/04, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
  10. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Virginie Coudert & Cecile Couharde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership," Working Papers 2002-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1992. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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