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Equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment In selected MENA countries

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  • Achy, Lahcen

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate and derive the degree of misalignment for five MENA currencies: the Algerian Dinar, the Moroccan Dirham, the Egyptian Pound, the Tunisian Dinar and the Turkish lira. Exchange rate policy represents a key tool in macro-economic management and dominates the public policy debate today. How to assess whether exchange rate is undervalued or overvalued with respect to its equilibrium value is clearly at the heart of this debate. An extensive analysis of the degree of misalignment of the five currencies is undertaken on the basis of detailed country specific data. Overall, our results pick up almost perfectly the exchange rate policy episodes in the five countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4799.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
Date of revision: 2001
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4799

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Keywords: Exchange rate; Misalignment; Equilibrium exchange rate;

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References

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  1. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Khalid Sekkat & Aristomène Varoudakis, 1998. "Exchange-Rate Management and Manufactured Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 134, OECD Publishing.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Grobar, Lisa Morris, 1993. "The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on LDC manufactured exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 367-376, August.
  5. Kenen,Peter B., 2000. "The International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644358.
  6. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
  7. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Arvind Subramanian, 1997. "The Egyptian Stabilization Experience," IMF Working Papers 97/105, International Monetary Fund.
  12. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  13. Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lahcen ACHY & Juliette Milgram, 2005. "Does a free trade area favors an optimum currency area? The Case of Morocco and the European Union," International Trade 0512012, EconWPA.
  2. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
  3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 2005. "Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc
    [Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]
    ," MPRA Paper 49503, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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