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Quo vadis Euro?

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Author Info
Enrique Alberola (Banco de España)
Susana Garcia-Cervero (Deutsche Bank)
Humberto López (World Bank)
Angel Ubide (Tudor Investments)

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Abstract

This paper calculates the equilibrium exchange rates for the Euro and the rest of the G-7 currencies. Building on the methodology of Alberola et al., it is shown that the stock of net foreign assets and the evolution of productivity are the fundamentals underlying the behaviour of the real exchange rate. Panel cointegration techniques allow for the extraction, using an unobserved components methodology, of a time- varying equilibrium real exchange rate, and deviations from this equilibrium provide an estimate of the degree of multilateral misalignment. Finally, an algebraic transformation converts these multilateral equilibrium real rates into bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that the Euro was slightly undervalued by the start of Stage III of EMU and that, despite a faint fall of its fundamentals since then, the slide during 1999 has widened the misalignment above 10% against other main currencies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0507004.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0507004

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18. publishe in The European Journal of Finance 8, 352–370 (2002)
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: equilibrium exchange rates; panel cointegration; Euro; G-7 currencies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp770, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp866, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2005. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies:," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 14, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahreche-Revil & Valerie Mignon, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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