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Le yuan et le G20

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  • Valérie Mignon
  • Amina Lahrèche-Révil
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

Abstract

[eng] The Yuan and the G20 . In this article, authors try to calculate the Yuan’s rise margin and to analyse the impacts of an exchange rate adjustment of Yuan and other Asian currency on the Euro-Dollar’s parity. First, this article describes the origins of the fixed exchange rate in China. This choice is an integral part of the Chinese development strategy which is based on exports incentives. This article shows 2 alternative assessments of the Yuan’s equilibrium exchange rate. The first assumption supposes that the Yuan changes as the all G20 currencies. The second assumption supposes that each G20 currency has its own adjustment’s dynamic. At last, the authors study the impact of a Yuan’s and other Asian currencies’ realignment on the international balances measured by the exchange imbalances suffered by these countries. Some scenarios allow to assume consequences of an Asian monetary co-operation. . JEL classification : F31, F36, O24, O53 [fre] Dans cet article, les auteurs cherchent à déterminer la marge d’appréciation du yuan, et à analyser les conséquences qu’aurait, pour la parité euro-dollar, un réajustement du taux de change du yuan et des monnaies asiatiques. Tout d’abord, cet article rappelle les origines du régime de change fixe en Chine, dont le choix est indissociable de la stratégie de développement chinoise, fondée sur une ouverture privilégiant les exportations. Puis, il propose deux mesures alternatives du taux de change d’équilibre du yuan, l’une fondée sur l’hypothèse que le yuan doit se comporter comme l’ensemble des monnaies des pays du G20, l’autre fondée sur l’hypothèse que les monnaies du G20 ont chacune une dynamique d’ajustement propre. Enfin, les auteurs étudient l’impact qu’aurait un réajustement du yuan et des autres monnaies asiatiques sur les déséquilibres mondiaux, mesurés par les distorsions de change subies par ces pays. Différents scénarios permettent de quantifier les conséquences d’une éventuelle coopération monétaire en Asie. . Classification JEL : F31, F36, O24, O53

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 127-146

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4177

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4177
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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  1. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center.
  2. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
  3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
  4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Michel Fouquin, 2003. "Heureux dollar," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 225.
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  6. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund.
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 02/127, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Enrique Alberola, 2005. "Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization And Exchange Rate Adjustment In Latin America," International Finance 0507005, EconWPA.
  11. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Ping HUA, 2001. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect and inflation in the Chinese provinces," Working Papers 200106, CERDI.
  12. Michel Aglietta & Bronka Rzepkowski, 2004. "Les banques centrales asiatiques et le dollar," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 230.
  13. Francoise Lemoine & Deniz Unal-Kesenci, 2002. "Chine : spécialisation internationale et rattrapage technologique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 92, pages 11-40.
  14. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
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