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Chinese Currency Controversies

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Author Info
Eichengreen, Barry

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Abstract

This Paper reviews the controversy over China’s exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the literature on exit strategies, it argues that now is the best time for China to exit from its peg. Moving to a managed float would be in the country’s own interest; it would help the Chinese authorities to gain better control of domestic money and credit conditions. The Paper argues that the principal objections to this recommendation – that the country’s banking system is weak, many of its state enterprises are bankrupt, and its capital account is not yet sufficiently open – are unconvincing. Finally it assesses the likely impact on other Asian countries, concluding contrary to the conventional wisdom that these are likely to be minor at best.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4375.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4375

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Related research
Keywords: asia; china; exchange rate; monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

Cited by:
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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Mariko Hatase, 2005. "Can a Rapidly-Growing Export-Oriented Economy Smoothly Exit an Exchange Rate Peg? Lessons for China from Japan's High-Growth Era," NBER Working Papers 11625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2005. "Estimating China's "Equilibrium" Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 05/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot money inflows in China : How the people's bank of China took up the challenge," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  4. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China : How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111153_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  5. Céline Rochon & Geneviève Verdier & Leslie Lipschitz, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 08/99, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "China’s Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: A Tale of Apples and Pirates," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0805, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures," Discussion Paper Series 0601, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University. [Downloadable!]
  8. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "China's capital account convertibility and financial stability," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0505, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "Estimating China’s de-facto capital account convertibility," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The renminbi equilibrium exchange rate: an agnostic view," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  11. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Monetary Stability in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 161, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Flávio Vilela Vieira & Michele Polline Veríssimo, 2005. "Crescimento Econômico De Longo Prazo Na China: Uma Investigação Econométrica," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 067, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  13. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas Lardy, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 422-426, May. [Downloadable!]
  14. Junning Cai, 2005. "Currency Manipulation versus Current Account Manipulation," International Finance 0510023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China’s Growth Paradigm," IZA Discussion Papers 2248, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Li-Gang Liu, 2005. "China'S Role In The Current Global Economic Imbalance," Discussion papers 05010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  17. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 10497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-18, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  19. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2006. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," IMF Working Papers 06/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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