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The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Fujii, Eiji

Abstract

The linkages between the People’s Republic of China and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the People’s Republic of China and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Amongst all, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the mainland. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degrees of financial and integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages as well as exchange rate volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt89s3z523.

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Date of creation: 16 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:qt89s3z523

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Keywords: uncovered interest parity; real interest parity; purchasing power parity; exchange rates; capital mobility; market integration;

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References

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Menzie D. Chinn, 1993. "Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Jose M. Campa & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Is Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion Caused By Arbitrage?," NBER Working Papers 6162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Marcus Noland & Li-Gang Liu & Sherman Robinson, 1998. "Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa56.
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  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  9. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
  10. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
  12. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  13. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1999. "International trade and factor mobility: an empirical investigation," Staff Reports 81, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-303.
  16. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-57, December.
  17. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
  18. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Willett, Thomas D. & Keil, Manfred W. & Ahn, Young Seok, 2002. "Capital mobility for developing countries may not be so high," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 421-434, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Li-Gang Liu, 2005. "China'S Role In The Current Global Economic Imbalance," Discussion papers 05010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  2. Hiroshi Fujiki & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 57-100, December.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Michael Donadelli & Alessia Varani, 2014. "International Capital Markets Structure, Preferences and Puzzles: The US-China Case," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1362, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
  5. R. Kohli, . "India's Experience in Navigating the Trilemma: Do Capital Controls Help?," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 257, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2013. "China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 4377, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00660654 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Monetary Stability in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 161, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. Lee, Chin, 2010. "Purchasing power parity and free trade area," MPRA Paper 40431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot money inflows in China : How the people's bank of China took up the challenge," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  11. Valérie Mignon & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 2004. "Le yuan et le G20," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 127-146.
  12. Ito, Hiro, 2006. "Financial development and financial liberalization in Asia: Thresholds, institutions and the sequence of liberalization," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 303-327, December.
  13. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2008. "Financial integration in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 8220, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2008.
  14. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Ling, Tai-Hu, 2008. "Real interest rate parity: evidence from East Asian economies relative to China," MPRA Paper 7291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00111153 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
  17. Jorge Selaive & Beatriz Velásquez & José Miguel Villena, 2008. "Extended Measures of Capital Transactions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 461, Central Bank of Chile.

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